Ethan Mollick examines a troubling paradox: despite planning horizons spanning a decade, few organizations seriously factor the possibility of continued AI improvement into their strategies. This omission is all the more surprising given that experts disagree on AI's future—some predict imminent exponential growth, others claim large language models have hit their limits.
The author emphasizes that even without further technological breakthroughs, AI would significantly disrupt organizations for years to come. AI systems require better integration, while a complete halt to development seems unlikely. Current impacts—professional automation, targeted phishing campaigns, pedagogical shifts—demand immediate attention.
Mollick draws an instructive parallel with Moore's Law, showing how technological expectations become motivating targets, creating self-fulfilling prophecies. AI leaders announce ambitious timelines (2027, five years), though opinions diverge. A 2023 survey of computer scientists placed the average expected date for AGI at 2047, with a ten percent probability before 2027.
Three main obstacles explain organizational inaction. First, dystopian discussions about superintelligence seem unplannable. Second, the striking absence of clear documentation for non-specialists perpetuates ignorance of current capabilities. Impressive features remain hidden behind non-intuitive interfaces or obscure tips.
Third, the fragmentary nature of AI progress—excellent in some domains, disappointing in others—makes it easy to downplay real capabilities. Mollick illustrates this tendency by citing critics who, while acknowledging remarkable achievements, deny their transformative significance.
The author proposes abandoning this paralysis by uncertainty. Rather than choosing a single vision of the future, organizations should plan for several possible scenarios: technical plateau, linear growth, exponential growth, or AGI. He recommends scenario planning, a process he demonstrates is facilitated by modern AI tools.
In conclusion, Mollick argues for acknowledging inevitable change and actively taking control of its direction. Uncertainty about the exact timeline does not justify inaction. Organizations must begin now to consider radically different futures and adapt their strategies accordingly.